For more than 20 years, I’ve seen consultants and other advice-sellers use an array of techniques to try to come up with a big new idea to take to market. Some of these ideas were total failures. A few were big successes. Most were in between, generating some market interest. And some of these spawned enough business leads to more than warrant the investment in time and money.
I’ll list these methods, from least to most successful:

These methods differ in two fundamental ways: the depth of research and proficiency of analysis. By “research,” I don’t necessarily mean how much a professional firm has studied some marketplace issue. The examples could be a professional firm’s client engagements – the consulting firm that has dozen of projects in designing Web self-service customer management systems, or the law firm defending numerous clients against class-action lawsuits. However, if a professional firm lacks deep experience on an issue, it needs to learn about the best way to address it through other means. The best one I’ve seen is conducting interviews with multiple executives at multiple companies that have addressed the issue – companies that solved it and others that did not (to begin to understand what accounts for success or failure).
Proficiency of analysis is rooted in rigor and creativity. Rigor includes the ability to ignore conventional wisdom and reject anything that doesn’t stand up to scrutiny. Rigor is also partly a function of time – how long a team has to study the data in front of it and think hard about what it means. Creativity is important for looking at data in entirely new ways. Given the license to reject conventional wisdom that is no longer valid, a team that is creative is far more likely to come up with a novel idea than one that isn't creative or isn't permitted to question the status quo.
If your firm wants to be the thought leader on a market issue, the most important decision is choosing an “R&D” approach that will get you there.
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